Clarity from the chaos.

The RBI is leaning against inflation above 5% and a rupee near 95 to the dollar. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said a cut is off the table in the near term, so floating-rate EMIs will tick up over the next few weeks.

Foreign investors have been net sellers for most of 2026, pulling money out as the rupee weakened and US yields stayed high. Domestic SIP inflows have absorbed much of that selling.

The rupee has slid from below ₹88 a year ago, pushed by oil above $100 during the Gulf war and foreign investors selling Indian assets. The RBI has spent tens of billions of dollars slowing the fall.

Food inflation hit 7.74%, with onions up more than 108% on a year earlier after a weak monsoon. Restaurant and hotel prices rose 9.36%. Rural inflation (6.08%) is running well above urban (4.88%).

Gold ran to records near $5,500 in January before a violent sell-off on January 30. Indian buyers pay more than the dollar price suggests, because a weaker rupee and import duty both sit on top of it.

Bank stocks move with interest-rate expectations. A rate hike widens lending margins in the short run but slows loan growth, which is why the index often wobbles around RBI meetings.

Real GDP grew 7.8% against 6.9% a year earlier, despite the Gulf war and oil above $100 for much of the spring. Farm output grew just 2.9%, and the weak monsoon will weigh on the next two quarters.

VIX is built from options prices. When traders pay more to insure against big moves, the number rises. It does not say which direction the market will move, only how jumpy traders expect it to be.

India taxes crypto gains at a flat 30% with a 1% TDS on transfers, so most Indian trading happens on a thin slice of local exchanges. Bitcoin is far more volatile than any index on this board.

Reserves are the RBI’s ammunition for defending the currency. About $60 billion has been spent from the September peak, which is why the RBI added a rate hike to its toolkit in October.