On July 8, after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over. Brent jumped between 6% and 7% in early trading. Three weeks of calm in oil markets ended in a morning.
Oil had spent the last days of June at its lowest price since February, around $72 a barrel. On July 8, after three commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the US responded with strikes, President Trump, speaking in Ankara, said the ceasefire with Iran was over. The US Treasury also withdrew a waiver that had allowed some Iranian oil to be sold. Brent rose between 6% and 7% in early trading, to roughly $78 to $80.
The return of the premium
Nothing physical changed in the oil market that morning. No refinery shut and no tanker sank. What changed was the probability of disruption, and traders immediately added back the risk premium that the June peace deal had removed. Withdrawing the waiver mattered too: tightening sanctions on Iranian oil takes potential supply out of the market even before any shipping is affected.
For an importer like India, every word from a podium in a war is a price signal.
Reading the signal
Some analysts described the announcement as a temporary suspension rather than a definitive end, and Trump himself left the door open to further talks. That ambiguity is what keeps oil volatile. Markets are now pricing two very different futures at once, and prices will swing toward whichever one the next statement makes more likely.
For India, the timing is poor. The rupee had been recovering from its May low, inflation was starting to rise as food prices climbed, and a below-normal monsoon was already under way. A renewed oil scare puts pressure on all three at once, and makes the RBI’s next meeting in August considerably harder.
Sources: AFP and Reuters reporting, July 8, 2026; international oil market data.
- On July 8, President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over after attacks on ships in Hormuz.
- The US also withdrew a waiver that had allowed some Iranian oil sales.
- Brent rose 6–7% to roughly $78–80 in early trading.
- Some analysts read it as a suspension rather than a final end, and talks remained possible.
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